Our velvet glow of diplomacy must now cover an iron fist of resolve.
- Jagat Mehta l Senior diplomat worked in Embassy of India in China, Indian Foreign Service
Intro :
The Iran-America tensions, Growing radicalism in the Muslim world, increased influence of terrorist organization in west Asia, Africa, and somewhat in Europe, Global Covid pandemic, climate change, these all issues over the years change the global order. But the major issue of them all is the aggressive policy of Communist China, which drastically impacted every nation all over the world, creating informal alliances (QUAD, D10), recession in the world economy, changing geopolitics, and creating hope for a new communist superpower.
As the words of Mao Zedong, the former supreme leader of China, 'Communism is not love, Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy', looks promising in today's context of China. For the last 10 months, the two Asian giants, nuclear nations, India and China engaged in a border standoff. The intense standoff is now deteriorating, the frontline troops of China and India at the banks of the Pangong Lake in Ladakh started synchronized and organized disengagement.
History :
The history of the formation of china goes back to 221 BC, when Qin Shi Huang conquered the various warring states and created for himself the title "emperor" of the Qin, marking the beginning of imperial China. Though modern China came into existence in 1949, after the civil war in the country. The communist-led by Mao Zedong founded the Peoples' Republic of China (Mainland China), while a few hundred thousand Nationalist troops and two million refugees, predominantly from the government and business community of the Chinese Nationalist Party, a democratic front fled from mainland China to an Island under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek and founded the Republic of China (Taiwan).
On 1 April 1950, India became the first country to officially recognized the PRC and was supportive of its stand that it was the only state that could be recognized as "China" and that the island of Taiwan was a part of Chinese territory. Though it was the complete failure of Indian diplomacy, as China engaged in a full-scale war with India in 1962, 1967. In those border wars India losses the part of Aksai Chin to China.
Content :
The hostile neighborhood of India makes it withhold a strong military. China on the Eastern front and Pakistan on the western front of India are both Nuclear-armed countries and most important they are like-minded to each other. Let us understand more about the geopolitics in Southeast Asia in the following points.
- Geopolitics -
- The aggressive and expansionist policy of China is a serious threat to India's sovereignty. China has increased its influence in small countries through debt diplomacy.
- China is giving $60 billion soft loans to Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is one of the largest projects undertaken by China. The idea of the project is to link western China to the southern port terminal of Pakistan through PoK (Indian Territory annex by Pakistan). The recent report shows the economic failure of the project, which makes Pakistan completely dependent on China. India is concern about this, as in 1963 Pakistan gifted the northern territory of PoK to china for some economic relief.
- In 2017 China foolishly acquire the Hambantota Port of Shri Lanka for 99 years. It is also developing Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar with a majority shareholding. This makes India's Easter and Southern theater vulnerable to Chinese aggression.
- The recent political blunder in Nepal is sponsored by China to preserve the communist government in Nepal.
- Military -
- India holds the fourth position in the global firepower index. China knows well that one nation in Asia which could militarily challenge China for its expansionist policy is India.
- China is blockading India from every front. The String of Pearl's theory of china explained this well. according to which China is trying to acquire land, military bases, military hardware. The main theater of this theory includes Myanmar and Bangladesh in the East, Shri Lanka in the South, and Pakistan in the West.
- Chinese military ranks third powerful military in the world. Though The Chinese military is superior in terms of military hardware, a number of soldiers but lack experience and warfare tactics to India. The recent Galwan incident proves that.
- The Indo-Pacific region is the next silk route of the modern world which is facilitating more than 40% of world trade. The 2016 report shows that China is increasing its Naval power so rapidly that it could overtake the American navy soon.
- India is countering Chinese expansion policy on multiple fronts. Countering China's string of pearls strategy India is developing certain ports in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Iran.
- Technology -
- The world is on verge of fourth-generation technology and shifting itself towards fifth-generation Technology. China has developed itself as a leading contender in 5G market. Chinese company Huawei has nearly 30% share in 5G market globally.
- India's technological market is not ready to facilitate 5G Technology. Our domestic companies are planning to launch their 5G devices with the help of foreign players.
- Recently India banned certain Chinese apps over the controversial data theft and privacy concerns and launch its own initiative of Atmanirbhar Bharat.
- Economy -
- Initially Chinese economy is far behind India. The Chinese economy is based on the manufacturing sector. initially, they have invested much more in the manufacturing industry.
- China's GDP per capita $7,308 in 2017 while India's GDP per capita $1987 in 2017.
- The bilateral trade between India and China was around USD 92.68 billion in 2019 which mostly favors china creating a massive $57 trade deficit.
- The covid pandemic crumbles India's economy, taking quarterly growth to -23%. Though India is recovering fastly, the fourth-quarter growth is +0.4%.
- Communism -
- Initially, Communism favor China to grow. After its formation, Russia had provided support in terms of machinery, technician, and expertise to China.
- But it also destroys humanity in the state. Chinese Communist Party believes in no state religion. The minorities such as Uighurs, non-Han Chinese facing atrocities in China.
Conclusion :
India's diplomacy is not assertive in the manner it has to be. Our diplomacy is based on countering China's policy, we are literally giving reactions to actions taken by China. The change in the balance of power between India and China has introduced a disequilibrium in India-China relations. The key to success in this power struggle would be a strategy that mobilizes national resources, fosters diplomatic and military coordination, and rallies international opinion against China’s pursuit of socialist imperialism.
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